Burke helping turn over new Leaf
Hockey Betting Lines
09/06/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In the past 12 months, the Toronto Maple Leafs have advocated change more than a campaigning politician.
Like a political party during election season, the Leafs are under constant scrutiny. And when the public loses faith in the abilities of the product, it's only a matter of time before an axe falls on someone's head.
First came personnel changes - out with the old and in with the new. Matt Stajan, Niklas Hagman, Ian White, Jamal Mayers, Vesa Toskala, Jason Blake, Alexei Ponikarovsky, Viktor Stalberg and Lee Stempniak were all victims of the winds of change.
Replacing these former representatives of the Blue and White are Dion Phaneuf, J.S. Giguere, Kris Versteeg, Colby Armstrong, Mike Brown, Clarke MacArthur and Brett Lebda to go along with rookie hopeful Nazem Kadri.
Aside from Brian Burke's affinity for North American players, the polarizing General Manager made these moves to change the identity of a brand that was no longer feared, nor respected.
Much like the team he helped create in Anaheim, Burke's mold for success relies heavily on the pit-bull mentality of his players - a cranky, aggressive, never-say-die swagger.
Based on the moves he's made to date, there's no doubt the Leafs will be a much more formidable opponent in 2010-11.
But aside from a revamped roster, Burke's purge on all that was wrong with the club over the past five seasons underwent a cosmetic makeover as well.
Back in June, the club named Dion Phaneuf the 18th captain in team history and the first since Mats Sundin relinquished that honor after the 2007-08 campaign.
On the same day, the refurbished Leafs also unveiled new uniforms. This shrewd move not only symbolized the spawn of a new era, it buried all that remained from a punchless period where a paper-bag became a familiar accessory among fans.
To go along with a new roster, new captain and new uniforms, the Leafs also made a subtle change last week when they introduced a new paint job at center ice of the Air Canada Centre - a row of Canadian flags stretching the span of the red line.
Upon revealing the altered design, MLSE chief executive officer Tom Anselmi said, "It seemed like just another fun little way to express the patriotism of our team, our organization and our fans."
While it may be a minor nuance, it fits in perfectly with the direction Burke is steering this fledgling franchise.
The Maple Leafs have long been considered Canada's team, with all due respect to the Montreal Canadiens, and now Burke is pushing to put theory into practice.
But amidst all the patriotic posturing and restructured team values, success is only weighed in wins and losses.
If Leaf Nation is forced to endure another miserable season, the hope that was used to sell the change that has been made over the past year, could just as easily turn to pessimism and dismay.
Selling a vision is all well and good, but leaving a successful legacy is what matters most. For Burke and the Maple Leafs, this upcoming season represents the beginning of that legacy.
Although Burke is only entering his second full year on the job, if the change that has inspired excitement amongst fans fails, it will not only be devastating to the diehards, it will jeopardize a vision that has closely associated itself with Canadian culture.
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Horse Betting
(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
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